Votes n' Stats

With the stage set for the assembly polls in the politically crucial state of Madhya Pradesh Offstumped takes a look at the battleground from the previous election. A big unknown this time - the effects of delimitation.

Some key observations from 2003

- Madhya Pradesh has had a high voter turnout in 2003 with as many as 72% of men voting.

- Also 2003 was a washout for the Congress winning only 38 seats but the Congress was not really decimated having forfeited deposit only in 19 seats.

- Was the BSP a spoiler back in 2003 - with a vote share of 10% in the seats it contested the BSP was clearly weaning away votes from the Congress. To what extent this trend will continue in 2008 remains to be seen.

A cursory examination of the margin of victory in 2003 is insightful

Seats with less than 3% vote margin - 25

Seats with 3% to 8% margin - 60

Seats with 8% or higher margin - 145

While was a decisive vote in favor of the BJP, it is also clear that the BSP cost the Congress dearly in those 85 seats.

Of the 38 seats the Congress won last time, except for Mungaoli, Surkhi, Attair, Bijeypur, Badnawar, Alot, Hatpipalya, Amla, Bhojpur, Masod, the BJP has not won the remaining 28 seats in the last 2 to 3 elections.

That kind of illustrates the degree to which the Congress is vulnerable in Madhya Pradesh.

More analysis from Offstumped in the days to come.